COVID Chronicle

Picking a Predictive Model When we started looking at demand at the end of March, different models were emerging, with vastly different projections for the state of Maine.

PREDICTIONS OF PEAK ICU DEMAND FOR MAINE

Updated April

ICU HOSPITALIZATIONS

Maine Actual ICU Hospitalizations

John Hopkins University Maine % Reduction R Mean

John Hopkins University Maine ‚ % Reduction R Mean

IHME Mean

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections are adjusted to reflect differences in aggregate population mobility and community mitigation policies.

One of the most discussed issues about COVID-19 is its basic reproduction number (R0). This epidemiological value refers to the spreading potential of this novel infection, defining R0 as a “fatal number”: the more it increases, the greater is the risk for the population, including higher mortality potential.

The Johns Hopkins University model assumes that the effectiveness of interventions is reduced after shelter-in-place orders are lifted.

21